Wednesday, February 23, 2005
Ibrahem Al Jaafari Iraqi P.M. designate
Wanted to check what Iraqis were saying about new Prime Minister. Seen him on the TV a few times speaking in Arabic. Can he speak English? If one can go by appearances, and I think you can to a large degree, he looks like the sort of chap for the job. What pressures will be put on his by the various political parties that support him, heaven knows, but there is a way to look at it: he is ony P.M. for 12 months. In that time his job will to (a) bring more law and order (b) be chairman of the Constitution committee.
Highlighting Iraqi opinion:
Omar at Iraq the Model
chews the fat with Egyptian friend over comparisons of Middle East govts., with particular reference to Egypt and Iraq (now and was). Ayman Al-Zawahiri's name come up. There are several links to him on Baghdadskies2 which detail his life story in the contect of Egypt as a country and its various strains of government, which is fascinating (to me anyway). The biggest one is the September 2002 New Yorker piece by Lawrence Wright. I'll post it here to save you wading through the blogroll > Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri
Omar links to a Brooking Institute essay by Michael E o'Hanlon, Iraq Without a Plan, which he then discusses.
Abu Khaleel at Iraqi Letter to America
asks whether it is true that the Americans are having talks with the insurgents, as reported by Reuters.
- It would be more important for the Iraqi govt. to be doing that.
which I think I could add somemthing constructive to:
(1) It should work out a lot better for Iraqis this time
- The oil will not be stolen from the Iraqis despite the rhetoric about the American only being there for the oil
- The oil,as I have repeatedly said through the over 2 year history of Baghdadskies, will be bought on the open market by whoever wishes to pay the market price, American companies competing to buy it with others
- The Americans will certainly stay to protect its flow onto the market because they need the oil desperately (more expensive to exploit Alaskan reserves, off-shore, etc.)
- The added advantage will be the refurbishment of the antiquated Iraqi oil infrastructure using mostly American expertise
- The oil wealth should trickle down more effectively than it has even done before, and, though it will not effect America whether it does or not, under the present climate, where America is said to be in Iraq to help and support Iraq, it is almost certain Iraqis will all be better off because America, and progressively, other Western countries and the UN, is present
- with international encouragement the Iraqi economy will modernise and grow, with a ready made market for its good and services in the Middle East and beyond
(2) it is unlikely that what happened in 1920s Iraq will be repeated today
- though there has been a balls up so far, the eyes of the world are watching in a way it didn't in those days
- though many people talk about neo-colonialism, the whole world has moved on in many respects, which means that people from under-developed or third-world countries are not treated quite as badly and disrespectfully as they were then. This does not mean American soldiers aren't shooting more Iraqis than they really need to. I have always said their way of doing things is almost criminal. It is more about the concensus on how to treat people, nowadays, not so much the U.S. military or the current U.S. govt.
- although there is much talk of the political divides based on ethnic and religious divides:
* Iraqis main demands will be for a prosperous future for themselves and their children
* This will cut across the divides which are currently exaggerated by the media because it makes good copy to have conflict, bad-guys/good-guys, whit hats/black hats scenarios to sell to ignorant western readerships normally fed a diet of scare/disaster stories
{{ saw Bowling for Columbine last night on TV and was mightly impressed by the fact that the U.S. and Canda both have firearms by the bucket load but Canada has little or no gun crime: all put down, by Michael Moore, to the mass-hysteria whipped up by the mass media [ha!] . A black comedian was shown doing a joke about bullets costing $5000 each, with a guy saying "I'd really like to kill you but I just can't afford to do it."
Another lesson to be learnt from this film is that Americans have beeen persuaded [the anti-gun lobby strangely ineffective, here] to have guns because arms manufacturers make billions out of making them, rather than because they really do feel need pistols under their pillows to protect themselves and their children.
In Iraq, there ought to be an all out drive to have an arms amnesty as soon as possible, paying Iraqis a reasonable sum for each AK40, and grenade-launcher, mine, artillery shell brought in. The reason half these insurgents are shooting and blowing up people and things is because they believe they are going to be left out economically.
If the new Iraqi media put out 'good' propaganda to tell these people who feel they are being marginalised that they will get clean water, electricity, sewage treatment, jobs, proper medical care and education for their children, but there has to be peace and stability in order for them to have these things, they will get it sooner or later. Once they see the promises coming true, the atmospher will change.
¶ Wednesday, February 23, 2005
