IRAQ WAR 2003-4. A current estimate of Iraqi civilan deaths 

The Jeremy Vine Programme on BBC Radio 3 this morning is discussing this. John Sloboda says the estimate so far: 11,000. No estimates are available for Iraqi military deaths. No lists are available of who died. No likelihood of one being compiled.

My simple-minded logic says:

Who has "suffered" most in a war can be determined by dividing "enemy" civilian deaths by own military deaths. Currently in Iraq that figure stands stands at


1000 (approx)
----- = 0.1 (1:10 or 10%)
10000


reference figure 1000 civilian / 1000 own military

= 1.00 (1:1: ; 100%)

< 1 = "Suffering"
> 1 = "No Suffering"


Vietnam

56,000
------ = 0.056 (rounded up to 0.1)
1,000,000
(N. + S. Vietnam + Cambodia)

Official Vietnamese figures, 1996

"The Hanoi government revealed on April 4 that the true civilian casualties of the Vietnam War were 2,000,000 in the north, and 2,000,000 in the south. Military casualties were 1.1 million killed and 600,000 wounded in 21 years of war. These figures were deliberately falsified during the war by the North Vietnamese Communists to avoid demoralizing the population."

Note: Given a Vietnamese population of approximately 38 million during the period 1954-1975, Vietnamese casualties represent a good 12-13% of the entire population. To put this in perspective, consider that the population of the US was 220 million during the Vietnam War. Had The US sustained casualties of 13% of its population, there would have been 28 million US dead.


Entire War

Force KIA WIA MIA CIA

US Forces 47,378 304,704 2,338 766
ARVN 223,748 1,169,763 NA NA
South Korea 4,407 17,060 NA NA
Australia 469 2,940 NA
Thailand 351 1,358 NA NA
New Zealand 55 212 NA NA
NVA/VC 1,100,000 600,000 NA 26,000


So equation is more accurately:

1476417
------- = 0.37
4000000


Iraq = 0.1 Vietnam = 0.37

If the median is 1 based on ratio of 1 military death to 1 civilian death, then for example 0.75 would be less suffering than 0.5, and 0.25 would be worse than 0.5

Currently, Iraq is well below Vietnam for "suffering".


Someone could devise a more complex equation including other factors.






  ¶ Tuesday, May 11, 2004